An expert’s take on how a coup in China could launch a transition to democracy.
This short book predicts—contrary to the prevailing consensus—that China’s leader Xi Jinping will very soon be removed from office in a coup d’état mounted by rivals in the top leadership. The leaders of the coup will then end China’s one-party dictatorship and launch a transition to democracy and the rule of law. Long-time diplomat and development banker Roger Garside draws on his deep knowledge of Chinese politics and economics first to develop a detailed scenario of how these events may unfold, and then—in the main body of the book—to explain why. His gripping, persuasive account of how Chinese leaders plot and plan away from the public eye is unique in published literature.
Garside argues that under Xi’s overconfident leadership, China is on a collision course with an America that is newly awakened out of complacency. As Xi’s rivals look abroad, they are alarmed that he is blind to the reactions that China’s actions have provoked from the world’s strongest power and its allies. In domestic affairs, Xi’s rivals recognize that economic and social change without political reform have created problems that require not just new leaders but a new system of government. Security abroad and stability at home demand a revolution to which Xi is implacably opposed. To save China—and themselves—from catastrophe, they must remove him and end the dictatorship he is determined to defend. But their will and capacity to do so depend crucially on how liberal democracies act. Garside’s scenario shows America leading its allies in creating the conditions in which Xi’s rivals move against him.
Roger Garside is a former diplomat, development banker, and capital market development advisor. He twice served in the British Embassy in Beijing and is the author of the highly acclaimed Coming Alive: China After Mao.
"Roger Garside is the author of one of the most influential and prescient books on China's early reform era, and now he has done it again with a thought-provoking book on how the country might get back on track. He dares to challenge the conventional wisdom that an economically powerful authoritarian state is invulnerable to change, showing instead how China is actually a brittle superpower where a series of events could well usher in radical change. China Coup is a must-read for anyone curious about China's future."—Ian Johnson, Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist and author of The Souls of China: The Return of Religion After Mao
"This book combines a story full of suspense and drama with by far the best-judged introduction I know to the facts of China today. Nothing is invented except the particular moves in the game. At a time when the faulty policies of Xi Jinping are taking China toward a developmental dead-end (at best) or conflict (at worst), how might actual named figures active today work together to replace their leader and also change direction to avert disaster? This speculation is so dramatic because, inventive though it is, it also stays close to the facts. The thrill comes not from fertile fantasy, but from deep understanding. What is described here could really happen."—Arthur Waldron, Professor of International Relations, University of Pennsylvania, and former Director of Asian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute
"China Coup is an astute and original analysis of the adverse dynamics that are eroding the Chinese Communist Party's capacity for long-term survival. It identifies the key drivers of regime decay, such as internal political disunity, an ideologically driven and power-hungry strongman, inefficient economic management, and geopolitical confrontation with the US. The author, Roger Garside, is a highly respected and knowledgeable analyst on China with decades of experience in 'China-watching.' He is also an excellent writer with an admirable ability to tell an absorbing story."––Minxin Pei, author of China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy
256 pp.5.5 x 8.25
9780520391703$23.95|£20.00Paper
Aug 2022